A Judge Who Isn't a Judge: Race for Bexar County Judge

Bexar County Judge

Primary Outlook: Nelson Favored

General Election Outlook: Nelson Favored

Bexar County Judge.  Through most of the 90s Republican Cyndi Krier held this post.  Since 2001, Democrat Nelson Wolff has been presiding on the Commissioners Court.

For such a powerful position, it's amazing how often it isn't contested, or at least actively challenged.  In 1992, Krier defeated Tommy Adkisson (D) to become County Judge.  When she ran for re-election in 1994 and 1998 she was unopposed.

When Wolff ran the first time in 2002 he faced a Republican and a Libertarian.  In 2006 and 2010 he was unopposed (2006) and only faced a Libertarian (2010).

Who's running?

Running for a full 4th term is incumbent Nelson Wolff.  A Democrat of the more moderate to conservative type, he's managed to avoid a primary challenge...until now.

Giving up his County Commissioner seat is Tommy Adkisson.  He's previously run and lost a race for County Judge and now resides as the Precinct 4 Commissioner.









Financial as of latest filing:
Adkisson: Contributions: $91,575; Expenditures: $90,920.54; CoH: $206,833.89
Wolff: Contributions: $159,600; Expenditures: $81,749.23; CoH: $214,622.99

Online:
Adkisson: Website, Facebook, Twitter
Wolff: Website, Facebook, Twitter, Attack Site

Overall this race is HOT, HOT, HOT:

1) Fireworks.  This is a race every political writer dreams of because it has fireworks.  If you've been to any forum featuring Wolff and Adkisson, you will not be disappointed.

2) Race.  It's a countywide race and it shows it.  This race makes the DA primary look like a race for a Wednesday Afternoon Fine Arts League.

3) Money.  Both candidates have enough money to really go after each other.  One glaring problem for Adkisson is his burn rate.  He's spending just as much as he's raising.

4) Endorsements.  Looking at the endorsements in this race, it starts to look like a David vs. Goliath.  Among Wolff's elected endorsers: Mayor Julian Castro, Congressman Joaquin Castro, Commissioners Paul Elizondo and Chico Rodriguez; State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, State Reps Phil Cortez, Ruth Jones McClendon, Trey Martinez-Fischer, Jose Menendez, Justin Rodriguez, Mike Villarreal.

Among former electeds: Henry Cisneros, Phil Hardberger, Howard Peak, Art Hall, Chip Haass, Patti Radle, Roger Perez, Bonnie Conner.

Among nonelecteds (i.e., prestige and money): Henry Munoz, Frank Burney, Berto Guerra, Frank Herrera, Jane Macon, Walter Serna, Mikal Watts.

Based on the support Wolff should win this race.  Add to that, his better management of campaign money, and Tommy's troubles with emails, and Wolff should easily be the nominee for November.

When will the Adkisson tape surface?

There is an advantage to having been around one place long enough, especially in politics.  Hanging around long enough you know where the bodies are buried.  In addition, you also build a long memory and can recall certain items that others have since forgotten.

In this instance, we're waiting for damaging video of Tommy Adkisson to surface and come back to haunt him.  Either on YouTube or in a campaign advertisement.

There exists a video out there that if used could very seriously damage his campaign as well as any ambition he has to run for something else.

The tape is a number of years old, but is probably still a potent weapon.

I guess the questions is which local news station will be the first to search their archives and strike gold?

March Primary Prediction: Tommy will get his Adkisson kicked by Nelson Wolff

Today incumbent Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff kicked off his campaign.

Today I'd like to make a prediction: Tommy will get his Adkisson kicked by Nelson Wolff

For reasons beyond anyone's comprehension, Precinct 4 County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson (D) is challenging incumbent County Judge Nelson Wolff (D).  (Personally, having met Tommy on numerous occasions, I like the guy, but really fail to see how he thinks challenging Nelson is a good idea)

Word is that among Adkisson's reasons for the primary challenge is he doesn't like the way he's treated at the courthouse, he thinks has been there too long, and he thinks Nelson is setting it up so that the job of county judge gets handed over to Precinct 3 County Commissioner Kevin Wolff (R).  No doubt Adkisson will have some legitimate reasons for wanting the top job, but just to go through these 3...

1) If you don't like the way you're treated, do something to change it.  If he's referring to the way the other commissioners treat him, does he really think that if he became county judge that would suddenly all change?

2) This is probably the stupidest reason.  Nelson has been there too long?  Nelson was appointed County Judge in 2001.  Tommy was elected to Pct. 4 Commissioner in 1998 and has been serving since 1999.

3) Nelson preparing the way for Kevin.  I'll confess that I don't know all the rules regarding vacancies on the Commissioners Court, but Nelson was appointed to County Judge after Cyndi Taylor Krier (R) resigned.  If is re-elected and resigns mid-term, the Commissioners (I'm assuming) would get to appoint his replacement.  I understand the Commissioners might show deference to Nelson's pick, but I can't imagine 3 Democrats appointing a Republican.  Especially given that fact, that if Susan Reed is re-elected to another term, that would mean the DA, Sheriff, and County Judge positions would all be held by Republicans.  Democrats would still have a majority on the Commissioners Court (if they hold Precinct 4), but think about the fundraising advantage for Republicans and the fact that those 3 Democrats (assuming Pct 4 is a hold) would have to go to the primary voters and defend appointing a Republican.

4) A fourth reason that Adkisson has been hitting Wolff on has been party loyalty. At first glance this is a pretty good line of attack for Adkisson.  At first glance.  However, Adkisson had, as a political consultant for a number of years, JoAnn Ramon working for him and running his campaigns.  She has worked for Democrats and Republicans.  And now Adkisson's campaign manager is Christian Anderson.  Like Ramon, Anderson has worked for Democrats and Republicans.  So yes, that loyalty attack is pretty good at first glance.  But when looking at who Adkisson has employed to help run his campaigns, suddenly party loyalty gets a little fuzzy.

JP Wentworth

Looks like soon-to-be former State Sen. Jeff Wentworth will be the new JP for Pct. 3.

The decision was unanimous by Commissioners Court.  Overall, this was probably the smartest decision.  The area is heavily Republican, so even if Democrats appointed a Democrat, that person likely wouldn't have run for election or would have run and faced almost certain defeat.

With Wentworth, Republicans keep the seat, but it prevents any young, up-and-coming Republicans from adding a position to their resume, as well as preventing them from having a springboard for higher office.

Wentworth is 72 years old and not likely to be climbing the political ladder.  He'll either serve out the remainder of this JP term or run for election to the post and serve a couple of terms and then retire.

There are still some benefits to being a Texas version of a moderate Republican.

Who Wants to be Pct. 3 JP?

Under nearly everyone's radar, Bexar County is playing host to its own version of American Idol.  In place of contestants singing their way into contention, we have politicos vying to be the last one standing in the game of Who Wants to be Pct. 3 JP?

Instead of the crusty and irascible Simon Cowell we have Commissioner Kevin Wolff.  Standing in for Randy Jackson, pre-gastric bypass, we have Commissioner Paul Elizondo; for Randy Jackson, post-gastric bypass, we have County Judge Nelson Wolff.  Rather than Paula Abdul, we have Commissioners Chico Rodriguez and Tommy Adkisson.

Who will they pick?

Democrats have a 4-1 majority on the court...but the vacancy comes in Precinct 3 which is heavily Republican and is mostly Kevin Wolff's area.  Will the Democrats pick a Democrat for the sake of adding another Democratic official...even though said official is likely going to lose (if they run for election) next time the seat is up?  Will Democrats defer to Kevin?  Will Democrats pick a Republican placeholder?  Or how about a Republican who won't seek higher office?

Ooooo the intrigue...

Who are the contestants?