Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Updated: Races to Watch in Bexar County

Now that Democrats have had a chance to recover from our massive hangovers..

1) Straight Ticket Voting.  Democrats lost this vote, but the margin was a lot smaller than 2010.
2) Gov. and Lt. Gov.  Leticia carried her home of Bexar County and was only 1 of 2 statewide Democratic candidates to carry Bexar County.
3) County Judge. Nelson Wolff easily (by 2014 standards) prevailed.
4) State Rep. 117 & U.S. Rep 23.  Until we see the precinct level results we won't know for sure, but I'm willing to bet that those precincts outside 1604 were not in favor of Cortez or Gallego. Kudos to Gallego for keeping the margin so close when compared to the 2010 result in CD 23.
5) District Attorney.  Nico carrying the day wasn't a good omen for other Democrats.  If anything it shows that 1) money does make a difference in elections and 2) people were probably tired of Susan Reed.
6) County Commissioner Pct 4. Calvert won by about the same margin as Adkisson did in 2010 and Democrats retain a 4-1 advantage on Commissioners Court.

When the results start to come in, there will be several races we'll be keeping our eye on.

In no particular order they are:

1) Straight Ticket Voting
     Why: In 2010, Democrats lost the straight ticket voting by about 12,000 votes.  Democrats won straight ticket voting in 2012, 2008, 2006, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1996. 2004 was the other recent year where Democrats lost straight ticket voting.  Even in a national bad year like 2002, Democrats still did well locally.

2) Gov. and Lt. Gov
     Why: Bill White carried Bexar County in 2010 even as every other countywide Democrat with a Republican opponent lost.  If both Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte are winning Bexar County that seems to bode well for Democratic efforts to turn out voters.

3) County Judge
     Why: Nelson Wolff winning shows that there are Democrats with enough crossover appeal to avoid a national bad tide which should bode well for any Democrats who ran strong campaigns locally.

4) State Rep. 117 & U.S. Rep. 23
     Why: In 2010, the vote outside Loop 1604 turned against Democrats.  Both State Rep. 117 and U.S. Rep 23 have a lot of crossover in terms of precincts that run outside Loop 1604.  If I had to define a boundary, I'd say watch the vote north of Highway 90, outside Loop 1604, and west of IH-10.

5) District Attorney
     Why: Bottom line, if Nico is winning the D.A.'s race, there's a very good chance that Democrats are carrying the night in Bexar County.  This also holds true for Chief Justice of the 4th Court of Appeals; if Irene Rios is winning this race in Bexar County, it's a good night for Democrats locally.

6) County Commissioner Precinct 4
     Why: If Tommy Calvert holds this open seat for Democrats, it hopefully comes because of a good turnout among African-Americans on the eastside.  A good turnout of African-Americans is good for Democrats in general.