Now that Democrats have had a chance to recover from our massive hangovers..
1) Straight Ticket Voting. Democrats lost this vote, but the margin was a lot smaller than 2010.
2) Gov. and Lt. Gov. Leticia carried her home of Bexar County and was only 1 of 2 statewide Democratic candidates to carry Bexar County.
3) County Judge. Nelson Wolff easily (by 2014 standards) prevailed.
4) State Rep. 117 & U.S. Rep 23. Until we see the precinct level results we won't know for sure, but I'm willing to bet that those precincts outside 1604 were not in favor of Cortez or Gallego. Kudos to Gallego for keeping the margin so close when compared to the 2010 result in CD 23.
5) District Attorney. Nico carrying the day wasn't a good omen for other Democrats. If anything it shows that 1) money does make a difference in elections and 2) people were probably tired of Susan Reed.
6) County Commissioner Pct 4. Calvert won by about the same margin as Adkisson did in 2010 and Democrats retain a 4-1 advantage on Commissioners Court.
__________________________________________________________________
When the results start to come in, there will be several races we'll be keeping our eye on.
In no particular order they are:
1) Straight Ticket Voting
Why: In 2010, Democrats lost the straight ticket voting by about 12,000 votes. Democrats won straight ticket voting in 2012, 2008, 2006, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1996. 2004 was the other recent year where Democrats lost straight ticket voting. Even in a national bad year like 2002, Democrats still did well locally.
2) Gov. and Lt. Gov
Why: Bill White carried Bexar County in 2010 even as every other countywide Democrat with a Republican opponent lost. If both Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte are winning Bexar County that seems to bode well for Democratic efforts to turn out voters.
3) County Judge
Why: Nelson Wolff winning shows that there are Democrats with enough crossover appeal to avoid a national bad tide which should bode well for any Democrats who ran strong campaigns locally.
4) State Rep. 117 & U.S. Rep. 23
Why: In 2010, the vote outside Loop 1604 turned against Democrats. Both State Rep. 117 and U.S. Rep 23 have a lot of crossover in terms of precincts that run outside Loop 1604. If I had to define a boundary, I'd say watch the vote north of Highway 90, outside Loop 1604, and west of IH-10.
5) District Attorney
Why: Bottom line, if Nico is winning the D.A.'s race, there's a very good chance that Democrats are carrying the night in Bexar County. This also holds true for Chief Justice of the 4th Court of Appeals; if Irene Rios is winning this race in Bexar County, it's a good night for Democrats locally.
6) County Commissioner Precinct 4
Why: If Tommy Calvert holds this open seat for Democrats, it hopefully comes because of a good turnout among African-Americans on the eastside. A good turnout of African-Americans is good for Democrats in general.
Showing posts with label 2014 Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 Election. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Update: Blood in the Water? Queen of Hearts D.A. is Upset
Update: According to a press release from the LaHood campaign, the ads that Reed tried to get yanked are now back on the air.
Word is that our own local Queen of Hearts, aka D.A. Susan Reed, is apoplectic that attorney Thomas J. Henry's donations to Democratic D.A. candidate Nico LaHood is up from nearly $700,000 to $1.2 million.
If anyone saw the the debate between LaHood and Her Majesty that was moderated by Rick Casey, one can't help but feel she was one step away from screaming, "Off With His Head!"
Now Reed has issued a royal proclamation that has resulted in a LaHood ad being pulled.
Henry pumping over a million dollars into the race. Reed getting an ad pulled. I think someone smells blood in the water.
For all of Reed's bellowing, one has to wonder: If someone or some thing, like a business, offered to pump a million dollars into the D.A.'s race on Reed's behalf, would she say no? What donation is too large? What if a donor gave her $50,000 each month for a year? Would that $600,000 be acceptable because it wasn't all at one time?
If anyone saw the the debate between LaHood and Her Majesty that was moderated by Rick Casey, one can't help but feel she was one step away from screaming, "Off With His Head!"
Now Reed has issued a royal proclamation that has resulted in a LaHood ad being pulled.
Henry pumping over a million dollars into the race. Reed getting an ad pulled. I think someone smells blood in the water.
For all of Reed's bellowing, one has to wonder: If someone or some thing, like a business, offered to pump a million dollars into the D.A.'s race on Reed's behalf, would she say no? What donation is too large? What if a donor gave her $50,000 each month for a year? Would that $600,000 be acceptable because it wasn't all at one time?
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
What the Hell? Day 3 of Early Voting
I think it's safe to say the early vote numbers are just a little whacky this year.
With the data (in-person and mail) from 2 full days of voting, Bexar County turnout is up. It's that in-person voting that is just confounding. Think about this:
1. Overall statewide turnout so far is up from 2010 (4.07% versus 3.79%; 365,347 versus 315,917)
2. In-person voting is down from 2010 (114,323 versus 121,395)
3. Mail ballots are up by a large amount from 2010 (137,402 versus 76,752)
Anyways...
For day 3 of in-person voting in Bexar, the Top 10 voting early voting sites in Bexar continue to be the usual suspects.
1. Brookhollow Library: 900
2. Cody Library: 623
3. Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 605
4. Great Northwest Library: 582
5. Semmes Library: 575
6. Wonderland of the Americas: 572
7. Shavano Park City Hall: 563
8. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 561
9. Maury Maverick Library: 546
10. Lion's Field: 533
One site has surpassed the 2,000 mark, and will undoubtedly pass the 3,000 voter mark tomorrow:
Brookhollow Library: 2,749
17 sites have now surpassed 1,000 voters (in order of largest # of voters: Wonderland of the Americas, Semmes Library, Great Northwest Library, Maury Maverick Library, Parman Library @ Stone Oak, Cody Library, Lion's Field, Tobin Library @ Oakwell, Shavano Park City Hall, John Igo Library, Bexar County Justice Center, University City City Hall, McCreless Library, Encino Park Community Center, Windcrest Takas Park, Leon Valley Conference Center, and Northside Activity Center.
Checking in with our 4 higher education voting sites, another 514 votes were added today for a 3 day total of 1,423.
With the data (in-person and mail) from 2 full days of voting, Bexar County turnout is up. It's that in-person voting that is just confounding. Think about this:
1. Overall statewide turnout so far is up from 2010 (4.07% versus 3.79%; 365,347 versus 315,917)
2. In-person voting is down from 2010 (114,323 versus 121,395)
3. Mail ballots are up by a large amount from 2010 (137,402 versus 76,752)
Anyways...
For day 3 of in-person voting in Bexar, the Top 10 voting early voting sites in Bexar continue to be the usual suspects.
1. Brookhollow Library: 900
2. Cody Library: 623
3. Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 605
4. Great Northwest Library: 582
5. Semmes Library: 575
6. Wonderland of the Americas: 572
7. Shavano Park City Hall: 563
8. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 561
9. Maury Maverick Library: 546
10. Lion's Field: 533
One site has surpassed the 2,000 mark, and will undoubtedly pass the 3,000 voter mark tomorrow:
Brookhollow Library: 2,749
17 sites have now surpassed 1,000 voters (in order of largest # of voters: Wonderland of the Americas, Semmes Library, Great Northwest Library, Maury Maverick Library, Parman Library @ Stone Oak, Cody Library, Lion's Field, Tobin Library @ Oakwell, Shavano Park City Hall, John Igo Library, Bexar County Justice Center, University City City Hall, McCreless Library, Encino Park Community Center, Windcrest Takas Park, Leon Valley Conference Center, and Northside Activity Center.
Checking in with our 4 higher education voting sites, another 514 votes were added today for a 3 day total of 1,423.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
After Day 2 of Early Voting
As previously suggested, the proof was in the mail ballots.
While in-person voting saw a drop off from 2010, the mail ballots saw a dramatic increase. Think about these numbers...
For the top 15 counties:
2010 mail ballots after Day 1 of early voting: 61,104
2014 mail ballots after Day 1 of early voting: 127,035
Harris 2010: 24,273
Harris 2014: 41,520
Dallas 2010: 11,464
Dallas 2014: 16, 180
Tarrant 2010: 549
Tarrant 2014: 15,925
Bexar 2010: 4,899
Bexar 2014: 12,942
The unknown is who is driving this mail ballot turnout. Wendy Davis is from Fort Worth/Tarrant, but is she driving this large number?
Getting back to Bexar, we can now say that we did see an increase in turnout from 2010. Combined in-person and mail from 2010 was 19,571. In 2014 that number is 26,378.
For Day 2 in Bexar County it was steady as she goes.
The Top 10 voting sites were mostly the same:
1. Brookhollow Library: 944
2. Wonderland of the Americas: 656
3. Maury Maverick: 633
4. Semmes Library: 618
5. Great Northwest Library: 512
6. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 578
7. Cody Library: 577
Shavano Park City Hall: 577
9. Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 569
10. Lion's Field: 554
For the 4 college sites, there was an increase: 482
In total, we now have 12 early voting sites that have passed the 1,000 voters mark:
Brookhollow Library: 1,849
Wonderland of the Americas: 1,336
Semmes Library: 1,229
Maury Maverick Library: 1,200
Great Northwest Library: 1,200
Lion's Field: 1,165
Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 1,136
Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 1,131
Cody Library: 1,097
Shavano Park City Hall: 1,085
John Igo Library: 1,050
Bexar County Justice Center: 1,011
Overall the number of in-person voters was up from yesterday: 13,899. What'll be interesting to see is the mail ballot numbers from today. As of right now though, in-person voting is still down from 2010.
While in-person voting saw a drop off from 2010, the mail ballots saw a dramatic increase. Think about these numbers...
For the top 15 counties:
2010 mail ballots after Day 1 of early voting: 61,104
2014 mail ballots after Day 1 of early voting: 127,035
Harris 2010: 24,273
Harris 2014: 41,520
Dallas 2010: 11,464
Dallas 2014: 16, 180
Tarrant 2010: 549
Tarrant 2014: 15,925
Bexar 2010: 4,899
Bexar 2014: 12,942
The unknown is who is driving this mail ballot turnout. Wendy Davis is from Fort Worth/Tarrant, but is she driving this large number?
Getting back to Bexar, we can now say that we did see an increase in turnout from 2010. Combined in-person and mail from 2010 was 19,571. In 2014 that number is 26,378.
For Day 2 in Bexar County it was steady as she goes.
The Top 10 voting sites were mostly the same:
1. Brookhollow Library: 944
2. Wonderland of the Americas: 656
3. Maury Maverick: 633
4. Semmes Library: 618
5. Great Northwest Library: 512
6. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 578
7. Cody Library: 577
Shavano Park City Hall: 577
9. Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 569
10. Lion's Field: 554
For the 4 college sites, there was an increase: 482
In total, we now have 12 early voting sites that have passed the 1,000 voters mark:
Brookhollow Library: 1,849
Wonderland of the Americas: 1,336
Semmes Library: 1,229
Maury Maverick Library: 1,200
Great Northwest Library: 1,200
Lion's Field: 1,165
Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 1,136
Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 1,131
Cody Library: 1,097
Shavano Park City Hall: 1,085
John Igo Library: 1,050
Bexar County Justice Center: 1,011
Overall the number of in-person voters was up from yesterday: 13,899. What'll be interesting to see is the mail ballot numbers from today. As of right now though, in-person voting is still down from 2010.
Monday, October 20, 2014
After 1 Day of Early Voting...
The first day of Early Voting has come and gone...
Unless the numbers are adjusted, in-person turnout in Bexar County is down from 2010.
On the first day of Early Voting in 2010 (Oct. 18), Bexar County saw 14,672 people vote. This year 13,436 people went and voted on the first day. We're down by 1,236 voters or 8.4% if I did the percentage correctly. We don't yet have the mail ballot numbers, so maybe they saw an increase. In terms of totals votes on the first day of Early Voting remember 19,571. That's the total of in-person and mail ballots on the first day in Bexar County. Unless the in-person numbers get adjusted, we'll need 6,136 mail in ballots to surpass 2010.
The top 10 Early Voting sites follow their usual pattern:
1. Brookhollow Library: 905
2. Wonderland of the Americas: 680
3. Semmes Library: 611
Lion's Field: 611
5. Great Northwest Library: 588
6. Maury Maverick Library: 567
Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 567
8. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 553
9. Bexar County Justice Center: 549
10: Cody Library: 520
The Early Voting sites at the colleges (UTSA, Northwest Vista, Palo Alto, SAC) saw a total of 427 voters.
I would have been shocked if Brookhollow and Semmes weren't in the Top 5, let alone the Top 10.
Wendy Davis is going to UTSA tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see if there is an uptick in their numbers.
Unless the numbers are adjusted, in-person turnout in Bexar County is down from 2010.
On the first day of Early Voting in 2010 (Oct. 18), Bexar County saw 14,672 people vote. This year 13,436 people went and voted on the first day. We're down by 1,236 voters or 8.4% if I did the percentage correctly. We don't yet have the mail ballot numbers, so maybe they saw an increase. In terms of totals votes on the first day of Early Voting remember 19,571. That's the total of in-person and mail ballots on the first day in Bexar County. Unless the in-person numbers get adjusted, we'll need 6,136 mail in ballots to surpass 2010.
The top 10 Early Voting sites follow their usual pattern:
1. Brookhollow Library: 905
2. Wonderland of the Americas: 680
3. Semmes Library: 611
Lion's Field: 611
5. Great Northwest Library: 588
6. Maury Maverick Library: 567
Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 567
8. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 553
9. Bexar County Justice Center: 549
10: Cody Library: 520
The Early Voting sites at the colleges (UTSA, Northwest Vista, Palo Alto, SAC) saw a total of 427 voters.
I would have been shocked if Brookhollow and Semmes weren't in the Top 5, let alone the Top 10.
Wendy Davis is going to UTSA tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see if there is an uptick in their numbers.
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Our 2014 Ballot Choices for Bexar County
Voting starts tomorrow, so who will we be voting for?
U.S. Senate: David Alameel (D)
U.S. Rep, District 20: Joaquin Castro (D) (essentially unopposed)
U.S. Rep, District 21: Anyone But Lamar
U.S. Rep, District 23: Pete Gallego (D)
U.S. Rep, District 28: Henry Cuellar (D) (essentially unopposed)
Governor: Wendy Davis (D)
Lt. Gov: Leticia Van de Putte (D)
Attorney General: Sam Houston (D)
Comptroller: Mike Collier (D)
Land Commissioner: John Cook (D)
Agriculture Commissioner: Jim Hogan (D)
Railroad Commissioner: Steve Brown (D)
Chief Justice, Supreme Court: William Moody (D)
Supreme Court, Place 6: Lawrence Meyers (D)
Supreme Court, Place 7: Gina Benavides (D)
Supreme Court, Place 8: RS Roberto Koelsch (LIB)
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3: John Granberg (D)
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 4: Quanah Parker (LIB)
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9: William Strange (LIB)
SBOE, District 3: Marisa Perez (D)
Senate District 25: Daniel Boone (D)
State Rep, District 116: Trey Martinez Fischer (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 117: Philip Cortez (D)
State Rep, District 118: Joe Farias (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 119: Roland Gutierrez (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 120: Ruth Jones McClendon (D) (essentially unopposed)
State Rep, District 121: Jeff Carruthers (LIB)
State Rep, District 122: James Holland (LIB)
State Rep, District 123: Mike Villarreal (D) (essentially unopposed)
State Rep, District 124: Jose Menendez (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 125: Justin Rodriguez (D) (essentially unopposed)
Chief Justice, 4th Court of Appeals: Irene Rios (D)
45th District Court: John Bustamante (D)
144th District Court: Paul Vasquez (D)
150th District Court: Edna Elizondo (D)
186th District Court: Mary Green (D)
187th District Court: Stephanie Boyd (D)
224th District Court: NO VOTE
225th District Court: Peter Sakai (D)
226th District Court: NO VOTE
227th District Court: Tony Jimenez (D)
285th District Court: Raymond Villareal (D)
288th District Court: NO VOTE
289th District Court: Carmen Kelsey (D)
290th District Court: Jennifer Pena (D)
436th District Court: Eddie Bravenec (D)
437th District Court: NO VOTE
District Attorney: Nico LaHood (D)
County Judge: Nelson Wolff (D)
County Court 1: Al Alonso (D)
County Court 2: Jeanette Burney Sullivan (D)
County Court 3: David Rodriguez (D)
County Court 4: Alfredo Ximenez (D)
County Court 5: Brenda Levenstein (D)
County Court 6: Rochelle Acevedo (D)
County Court 7: Michael De Leon (D)
County Court 8: Liza Rodriguez (D)
County Court 9: Carlos Quezada (D)
County Court 10: Tina Torres (D)
County Court 11: Carlo Key (D)
County Court 12: NO VOTE
County Court 13: Rosie Gonzalez (D)
County Court 14: Ernest Acevedo (D)
County Court 15: Michael LaHood (D)
Probate Court 1: Barbie Scharf-Zeldes (D)
Probate Court 2: NO VOTE
District Clerk: NO VOTE
County Clerk: Suzanne de Leon (D)
County Commissioner, Pct. 2: Paul Elizondo (D) (essentially unopposed)
County Commissioner, Pct. 4: Tommy Calvert (D)
JP, Pct. 1, Place 1: Bobby Tejeda (D) (unopposed)
JP, Pct. 1, Place 2: Ciro Rodriguez (D) (unopposed)
JP, Pct. 3, Place 1: NO VOTE
JP, Pct. 3, Place 2: Jason Pipoly (LIB)
JP, Pct. 4, Place 1: Roger Lopez (D) (unopposed)
JP, Pct. 4, Place 2: Yolanda Uresti (D) (unopposed)
For those NO VOTE races...
224th District Court: The Democratic nominee Lauro Bustamante is an embarrassment of a candidate and the poster child for bringing back smoke-filled rooms to nominate candidates. He was replaced as a candidate in 2008 and should be barred from ever running and winning elective office. We will not vote for the Republican, so we're skipping this race.
226th District Court: By all accounts Sid Harle is a good Republican judge that a lot of Democrats like. He was rumored to have been contemplating a primary challenge to D.A. Susan Reed. Once again though, we're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
288th District Court: While we were inclined to vote for the Democrat, new information about his student loan debt has caused us to withhold our vote. Like Sid Harle, Sol Casseb seems to be a Republican that a lot of Democrats like. But once again though, we're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
437th District Court: We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
County Court 12: We have been inclined to vote for the Democrat given his previous service to Bexar County, but after hearing from friends, we don't believe he has the judicial temperament needed. We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
Probate Court 2: We didn't vote for Rickhoff when he was opposed by a Democrat. He's unopposed, but we're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
District Clerk: Once again we a Democratic candidate who is a poster child for bringing back smoke-filled rooms. There was a far and away better choice in the primary. We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
JP, Pct. 3, Place 1: We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
For those (LIB) races...
Supreme Court Place 8, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 4 & 9: We've already said we're not voting for a Republican. If the Libertarians can achieve 5% of the vote in a statewide race, they automatically get to be on the ballot at the next election. Libertarians seem to take more votes from Republicans, so we feel it's good to keep their place on the ballot.
District 121 & 122: Straus and Larson are going to win, but at least we register a protest vote.
JP, Pct 3, Place 2: Wentworth is going to win and unfortunately for Texas he's no longer in the Legislature. Again he's a Republican who you can do business with when an election is over. But we'll go ahead and register a protest vote.
Other notes...
Agriculture Commissioner: Again, we have a poster child for smoke-filled rooms. Hogan is an embarrassment of a candidate, but at the very least he's a protest vote and he helps Democrats get a good idea of their baseline vote with even terrible candidates.
U.S. Senate: David Alameel (D)
U.S. Rep, District 20: Joaquin Castro (D) (essentially unopposed)
U.S. Rep, District 21: Anyone But Lamar
U.S. Rep, District 23: Pete Gallego (D)
U.S. Rep, District 28: Henry Cuellar (D) (essentially unopposed)
Governor: Wendy Davis (D)
Lt. Gov: Leticia Van de Putte (D)
Attorney General: Sam Houston (D)
Comptroller: Mike Collier (D)
Land Commissioner: John Cook (D)
Agriculture Commissioner: Jim Hogan (D)
Railroad Commissioner: Steve Brown (D)
Chief Justice, Supreme Court: William Moody (D)
Supreme Court, Place 6: Lawrence Meyers (D)
Supreme Court, Place 7: Gina Benavides (D)
Supreme Court, Place 8: RS Roberto Koelsch (LIB)
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3: John Granberg (D)
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 4: Quanah Parker (LIB)
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9: William Strange (LIB)
SBOE, District 3: Marisa Perez (D)
Senate District 25: Daniel Boone (D)
State Rep, District 116: Trey Martinez Fischer (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 117: Philip Cortez (D)
State Rep, District 118: Joe Farias (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 119: Roland Gutierrez (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 120: Ruth Jones McClendon (D) (essentially unopposed)
State Rep, District 121: Jeff Carruthers (LIB)
State Rep, District 122: James Holland (LIB)
State Rep, District 123: Mike Villarreal (D) (essentially unopposed)
State Rep, District 124: Jose Menendez (D) (unopposed)
State Rep, District 125: Justin Rodriguez (D) (essentially unopposed)
Chief Justice, 4th Court of Appeals: Irene Rios (D)
45th District Court: John Bustamante (D)
144th District Court: Paul Vasquez (D)
150th District Court: Edna Elizondo (D)
186th District Court: Mary Green (D)
187th District Court: Stephanie Boyd (D)
224th District Court: NO VOTE
225th District Court: Peter Sakai (D)
226th District Court: NO VOTE
227th District Court: Tony Jimenez (D)
285th District Court: Raymond Villareal (D)
288th District Court: NO VOTE
289th District Court: Carmen Kelsey (D)
290th District Court: Jennifer Pena (D)
436th District Court: Eddie Bravenec (D)
437th District Court: NO VOTE
District Attorney: Nico LaHood (D)
County Judge: Nelson Wolff (D)
County Court 1: Al Alonso (D)
County Court 2: Jeanette Burney Sullivan (D)
County Court 3: David Rodriguez (D)
County Court 4: Alfredo Ximenez (D)
County Court 5: Brenda Levenstein (D)
County Court 6: Rochelle Acevedo (D)
County Court 7: Michael De Leon (D)
County Court 8: Liza Rodriguez (D)
County Court 9: Carlos Quezada (D)
County Court 10: Tina Torres (D)
County Court 11: Carlo Key (D)
County Court 12: NO VOTE
County Court 13: Rosie Gonzalez (D)
County Court 14: Ernest Acevedo (D)
County Court 15: Michael LaHood (D)
Probate Court 1: Barbie Scharf-Zeldes (D)
Probate Court 2: NO VOTE
District Clerk: NO VOTE
County Clerk: Suzanne de Leon (D)
County Commissioner, Pct. 2: Paul Elizondo (D) (essentially unopposed)
County Commissioner, Pct. 4: Tommy Calvert (D)
JP, Pct. 1, Place 1: Bobby Tejeda (D) (unopposed)
JP, Pct. 1, Place 2: Ciro Rodriguez (D) (unopposed)
JP, Pct. 3, Place 1: NO VOTE
JP, Pct. 3, Place 2: Jason Pipoly (LIB)
JP, Pct. 4, Place 1: Roger Lopez (D) (unopposed)
JP, Pct. 4, Place 2: Yolanda Uresti (D) (unopposed)
For those NO VOTE races...
224th District Court: The Democratic nominee Lauro Bustamante is an embarrassment of a candidate and the poster child for bringing back smoke-filled rooms to nominate candidates. He was replaced as a candidate in 2008 and should be barred from ever running and winning elective office. We will not vote for the Republican, so we're skipping this race.
226th District Court: By all accounts Sid Harle is a good Republican judge that a lot of Democrats like. He was rumored to have been contemplating a primary challenge to D.A. Susan Reed. Once again though, we're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
288th District Court: While we were inclined to vote for the Democrat, new information about his student loan debt has caused us to withhold our vote. Like Sid Harle, Sol Casseb seems to be a Republican that a lot of Democrats like. But once again though, we're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
437th District Court: We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
County Court 12: We have been inclined to vote for the Democrat given his previous service to Bexar County, but after hearing from friends, we don't believe he has the judicial temperament needed. We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
Probate Court 2: We didn't vote for Rickhoff when he was opposed by a Democrat. He's unopposed, but we're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
District Clerk: Once again we a Democratic candidate who is a poster child for bringing back smoke-filled rooms. There was a far and away better choice in the primary. We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
JP, Pct. 3, Place 1: We're not voting for a Republican, so we're skipping this race.
For those (LIB) races...
Supreme Court Place 8, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 4 & 9: We've already said we're not voting for a Republican. If the Libertarians can achieve 5% of the vote in a statewide race, they automatically get to be on the ballot at the next election. Libertarians seem to take more votes from Republicans, so we feel it's good to keep their place on the ballot.
District 121 & 122: Straus and Larson are going to win, but at least we register a protest vote.
JP, Pct 3, Place 2: Wentworth is going to win and unfortunately for Texas he's no longer in the Legislature. Again he's a Republican who you can do business with when an election is over. But we'll go ahead and register a protest vote.
Other notes...
Agriculture Commissioner: Again, we have a poster child for smoke-filled rooms. Hogan is an embarrassment of a candidate, but at the very least he's a protest vote and he helps Democrats get a good idea of their baseline vote with even terrible candidates.
Early Vote Tomorrow Update: Endorsements, Endorsements, Who Got an Endorsement
Update: How conservative a paper are you when you endorse Dan Patrick? Really Lubbock? From reading that paper's endorsement of Sam Houston, all Ken Paxton would have had to do was show up and he would have been endorsed. Hell he probably could have driven by, waved, and still gotten the endorsement.
Most people who work on campaigns would probably agree that the larger the race (i.e., president), the less likely an endorsement from a newspaper matters. It probably has a larger impact on those down ballot races that 1) nobody pays attention to and 2) the candidates don't have enough money to get their name before the voters. Having seen candidates win a newspaper endorsement and lose, versus those who don't get the endorsement and win, it's easy to dismiss newspaper endorsements as a meaningless folly. Having said that, campaigns being the competitive things they are, every candidate wants all the support they can get.
So how have these meaningless endorsements gone so far? We'll update this list as more endorsements come in.
Governor
Wendy Davis (D): Austin American-Statesman, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Cosmopolitan, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Greg Abbott (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
Lt. Gov.
Leticia Van de Putte (D): Austin American-Statesman, Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, El Paso Times, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Dan Patrick (R): Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
Attorney General
Sam Houston (D): Austin American-Statesman, Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, San Antonio Express-News
Ken Paxton (R):
Comptroller
Mike Collier (D): Austin American-Statesman, Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Glenn Hegar (R): Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
Land Commissioner
John Cook (D):
George Bush (R): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, San Antonio Express-News
Ag Commissioner
Jim Hogan (D):
Sid Miller (R): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
No Endorsement: San Antonio Express-News
Railroad Commissioner
Steve Brown (D): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, San Antonio Express-News
Ryan Sitton (R): Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
U.S. Senate
David Alameel (D):
John Cornyn (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Judicial Races Statewide:
Chief Justice, Supreme Court
William Moody (D):
Nathan Hecht (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Supreme Court, Place 6
Lawrence Meyers (D):
Jeff Brown (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Supreme Court, Place 7
Gina Benavides (D): Beaumont Enterprise, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Jeffrey Boyd (R): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3
John Granberg (D):
Bert Richardson (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Locally, who has the San Antonio Express-News chosen?
Most people who work on campaigns would probably agree that the larger the race (i.e., president), the less likely an endorsement from a newspaper matters. It probably has a larger impact on those down ballot races that 1) nobody pays attention to and 2) the candidates don't have enough money to get their name before the voters. Having seen candidates win a newspaper endorsement and lose, versus those who don't get the endorsement and win, it's easy to dismiss newspaper endorsements as a meaningless folly. Having said that, campaigns being the competitive things they are, every candidate wants all the support they can get.
So how have these meaningless endorsements gone so far? We'll update this list as more endorsements come in.
Governor
Wendy Davis (D): Austin American-Statesman, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Cosmopolitan, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Greg Abbott (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
Lt. Gov.
Leticia Van de Putte (D): Austin American-Statesman, Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, El Paso Times, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Dan Patrick (R): Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
Attorney General
Sam Houston (D): Austin American-Statesman, Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, San Antonio Express-News
Ken Paxton (R):
Comptroller
Mike Collier (D): Austin American-Statesman, Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Glenn Hegar (R): Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
Land Commissioner
John Cook (D):
George Bush (R): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, San Antonio Express-News
Ag Commissioner
Jim Hogan (D):
Sid Miller (R): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
No Endorsement: San Antonio Express-News
Railroad Commissioner
Steve Brown (D): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, San Antonio Express-News
Ryan Sitton (R): Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
U.S. Senate
David Alameel (D):
John Cornyn (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Dallas Morning News, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Judicial Races Statewide:
Chief Justice, Supreme Court
William Moody (D):
Nathan Hecht (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Supreme Court, Place 6
Lawrence Meyers (D):
Jeff Brown (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Supreme Court, Place 7
Gina Benavides (D): Beaumont Enterprise, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Jeffrey Boyd (R): Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3
John Granberg (D):
Bert Richardson (R): Beaumont Enterprise, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News
Locally, who has the San Antonio Express-News chosen?
Saturday, December 21, 2013
6 Texas Democratic Recruiting Failures
In 2012, Barack Obama won 41.38% of the vote in Texas. In the races for the Texas State House there were 16 Republican-held seats where he scored at least 40% of the vote. Of those 16, Democrats came up short in 6 of them and have given the Republicans a free ride to Austin.
What are those 6?
HD 54, Republican incumbent Jimmie Don Aycock
Obama managed to get nearly 46% (45.7) of the vote in this district.
HD 112, Republican incumbent Angie Chen Button
HD 114, Republican incumbent Jason Villalba
Obama scored 43.5% in both of these districts.
HD 45, Republican incumbent Jason Isaac
Obama scored 41.8% in this district.
HD 32, Republican incumbent Todd Hunter
Obama scored 41.1% in this district.
HD 96, Republican incumbent Bill Zedler
Obama scored 40.2% in this district.
Yes these are tough districts that are probably going to be tougher in a non-presidential year.
However, you can't just retreat every non-presidential election year. You think giving these Republicans a free ride now makes them any easier to defeat?
And is that really a long-term solution? Just challenge competitive districts in presidential years when turnout is better? And then retreat every non-presidential year?
What are those 6?
HD 54, Republican incumbent Jimmie Don Aycock
Obama managed to get nearly 46% (45.7) of the vote in this district.
HD 112, Republican incumbent Angie Chen Button
HD 114, Republican incumbent Jason Villalba
Obama scored 43.5% in both of these districts.
HD 45, Republican incumbent Jason Isaac
Obama scored 41.8% in this district.
HD 32, Republican incumbent Todd Hunter
Obama scored 41.1% in this district.
HD 96, Republican incumbent Bill Zedler
Obama scored 40.2% in this district.
Yes these are tough districts that are probably going to be tougher in a non-presidential year.
However, you can't just retreat every non-presidential election year. You think giving these Republicans a free ride now makes them any easier to defeat?
And is that really a long-term solution? Just challenge competitive districts in presidential years when turnout is better? And then retreat every non-presidential year?
Thursday, November 28, 2013
14 Years
14 years. Unless someone else files on Dec. 9, this will be the first time Democrats have had 2 elected officials running for executive statewide office since 2002. Democrats have had elected officials run for the U.S. Senate and the statewide judiciary, but it has been 14 years since at least 2 incumbent officials have attempted to make the leap to one of the statewide executive offices (Gov., Lite Gov, AG, Comptroller, Land Comm, Ag Comm, Railroad Commission). Just to be clear, when I say elected official I mean someone who is currently in office and running for another.
We've had former officials run in the past:
2010 - Bill White and Hector Uribe
2006 - Chris Bell, Fred Head, VaLinda Hathcox
2002 - John Sharp and Kirk Watson
Elected officials who ran:
2014 - Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte
2002 - David Bernsen and Tom Ramsay
If Sen. Carlos Uresti had filed for Attorney General, we could go even further back. The last time Democrats had at least 3 elected officials try for statewide executive office was 1998: Garry Maruo, John Sharp, Richard Raymond, and Pete Patterson.
We've had former officials run in the past:
2010 - Bill White and Hector Uribe
2006 - Chris Bell, Fred Head, VaLinda Hathcox
2002 - John Sharp and Kirk Watson
Elected officials who ran:
2014 - Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte
2002 - David Bernsen and Tom Ramsay
If Sen. Carlos Uresti had filed for Attorney General, we could go even further back. The last time Democrats had at least 3 elected officials try for statewide executive office was 1998: Garry Maruo, John Sharp, Richard Raymond, and Pete Patterson.
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