Texas Democratic Congressional Recruitment Failure: Pete Sessions

What's funny is that most Texas Democrats probably don't even realize they had the opportunity to get a good recruit to run against Republican Pete Sessions.

How do we know this way down here in San Antonio?

A couple of months ago a friend of ours happened to be on a flight with a Dallas County Judge.  They got to talking about the district and Jane Doe seemed to have researched the district...talking about the demographics of the district...that redistricting had made it a little more competitive for a Democrat...the problems going on with the country...the bad job Sessions is doing, etc.

Our friend then made the suggestion, "Why don't you run?"

As it was told to us, Jane Doe seemed to give the idea serious consideration and didn't say no, she just hadn't been approached by any of the movers and shakers about it.

Who was Jane Doe?  Judge Sally Montgomery.

2014 Prediction: Republicans keep Strong Majority in Texas House

How do we arrive at this prediction?

Of the 150 House seats, Democrats failed to field a candidate in 58 Districts.  Granted, a great number of these seats are horrible territory for Democrats and they'd likely be sacrificial lambs, but consider this: A working majority in the Texas House is 76 seats.  Republicans are already 76% of the way to a working majority.  All those unchallenged seats free up money to be spent to try and hold their Super Majority.

Republicans only need 18 more seats to maintain their majority.  Who doesn't think they'll make it?

6 Texas Democratic Recruiting Failures

In 2012, Barack Obama won 41.38% of the vote in Texas.  In the races for the Texas State House there were 16 Republican-held seats where he scored at least 40% of the vote.  Of those 16, Democrats came up short in 6 of them and have given the Republicans a free ride to Austin.

What are those 6?

HD 54, Republican incumbent Jimmie Don Aycock

Obama managed to get nearly 46% (45.7) of the vote in this district.

HD 112, Republican incumbent Angie Chen Button
HD 114, Republican incumbent Jason Villalba

Obama scored 43.5% in both of these districts.

HD 45, Republican incumbent Jason Isaac

Obama scored 41.8% in this district.

HD 32, Republican incumbent Todd Hunter

Obama scored 41.1% in this district.

HD 96, Republican incumbent Bill Zedler

Obama scored 40.2% in this district.

Yes these are tough districts that are probably going to be tougher in a non-presidential year.

However, you can't just retreat every non-presidential election year.  You think giving these Republicans a free ride now makes them any easier to defeat?

And is that really a long-term solution?  Just challenge competitive districts in presidential years when turnout is better?  And then retreat every non-presidential year?

Financial Friday

From the Texas Ethics Commission, the latest financial reports on the Texas Democratic Party and the Texas Republican Party.

From their PTYC filings:

TDP:
Contributions: $30,155
Expenditures: $31,675.97
CoH: $3,128.16

TXGOP:
Contributions: $89,094
Expenditures: $86,187.81
CoH: $114,633.06

From their PAC filings:

TDP:
Contributions: $16,797.50
Expenditures: $152,178.55
CoH: $138,464.53

TXGOP:
Contributions: $285,111.17
Expenditures: $281,761.97
CoH: $104,520.19

Who were the largest donors in each filing?

PTYC filings

TDP:  Texas State Assn. of Electrical Workers - $10,000
Anheuser-Bush - $7,500
Texas AFL-CIO - $3,500
Verizon, Inc. - $2,500
Texas UAW State Cap Council - $2,000
There were several $1,000 contributors: CenterPoint Energy Services Company, LLC; Message, Audience, & Presentation, Inc.; Texas Building & Construction Trades Council, AFL-CIO.

TXGOP: AT&T Services Inc. - $25,000
Verizon - $25,000
David Holdings - $10,000
Mach Industrial Group LP - $10,000
Empower Texans - $6,000
Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc - $2,500
Specialty Research Assoc LLC - $1,800
Texas for Lawsuit Reform - $1,800
Vector Automotive Technologies Inc. - $1,800
JBob's Designs Inc. - $1,500
Accuracy in Media Inc. - $1,000

PAC filings

TDP: State COPE Fund - $5,000
Joaquin Castro for State Representative Dist. 125 - $4,000
United Transportation Union PAC - $2,200
Hidalgo County Texas Democratic Women - $1,000
Yvonne Davis Campaign - $1,000

TXGOP: David Dewhurst Committee - $30,000
John Carona (& John Carona Campaign) - $26,000
Nate Crain - $26,000
Curtis Mewmoume - $25,000
Bob Perry - $25,000
Dick Saulsbury - $15,000
Texas for Greg Abbott - $10,000
Neal Adams - $5,000
Dale Brown - $5,000
Friends of Barry Smitherman - $5,000
Charles Hughes - $5,000
Texans for Tom Leppert - $5,000
Texans for Todd Staples - $4,300
Deborah Van Domolen - $3,100
Robin Armstrong - $2,500
Chris Craddick Campaign - $2,500
Daniel Branch - $2,000
Friends of Susan Combs - $2,000
$1,000 contributors: Brian Birdwell, Chris Harris, Coalition to Elect Larry Taylor, Conaway for Congress, Diane Patrick Campaign PAC, Josh Flynn, Patrick Gibson, Larry Gonzales, Lanham Lyne Campaign, Lee Pfluger Ranch, Sarah Lipsett, Olsen & Shuvalov LP, Patterson Campaign, Robert Pickard, Texans for Joe Straus, Texas Federation of Republican Women, Texas State Rifle Association PAC, The Hon. Kent Grusendorf, Scott Wisniewski