March Primary Prediction: Tommy will get his Adkisson kicked by Nelson Wolff

Today incumbent Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff kicked off his campaign.

Today I'd like to make a prediction: Tommy will get his Adkisson kicked by Nelson Wolff

For reasons beyond anyone's comprehension, Precinct 4 County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson (D) is challenging incumbent County Judge Nelson Wolff (D).  (Personally, having met Tommy on numerous occasions, I like the guy, but really fail to see how he thinks challenging Nelson is a good idea)

Word is that among Adkisson's reasons for the primary challenge is he doesn't like the way he's treated at the courthouse, he thinks has been there too long, and he thinks Nelson is setting it up so that the job of county judge gets handed over to Precinct 3 County Commissioner Kevin Wolff (R).  No doubt Adkisson will have some legitimate reasons for wanting the top job, but just to go through these 3...

1) If you don't like the way you're treated, do something to change it.  If he's referring to the way the other commissioners treat him, does he really think that if he became county judge that would suddenly all change?

2) This is probably the stupidest reason.  Nelson has been there too long?  Nelson was appointed County Judge in 2001.  Tommy was elected to Pct. 4 Commissioner in 1998 and has been serving since 1999.

3) Nelson preparing the way for Kevin.  I'll confess that I don't know all the rules regarding vacancies on the Commissioners Court, but Nelson was appointed to County Judge after Cyndi Taylor Krier (R) resigned.  If is re-elected and resigns mid-term, the Commissioners (I'm assuming) would get to appoint his replacement.  I understand the Commissioners might show deference to Nelson's pick, but I can't imagine 3 Democrats appointing a Republican.  Especially given that fact, that if Susan Reed is re-elected to another term, that would mean the DA, Sheriff, and County Judge positions would all be held by Republicans.  Democrats would still have a majority on the Commissioners Court (if they hold Precinct 4), but think about the fundraising advantage for Republicans and the fact that those 3 Democrats (assuming Pct 4 is a hold) would have to go to the primary voters and defend appointing a Republican.

4) A fourth reason that Adkisson has been hitting Wolff on has been party loyalty. At first glance this is a pretty good line of attack for Adkisson.  At first glance.  However, Adkisson had, as a political consultant for a number of years, JoAnn Ramon working for him and running his campaigns.  She has worked for Democrats and Republicans.  And now Adkisson's campaign manager is Christian Anderson.  Like Ramon, Anderson has worked for Democrats and Republicans.  So yes, that loyalty attack is pretty good at first glance.  But when looking at who Adkisson has employed to help run his campaigns, suddenly party loyalty gets a little fuzzy.