Senate District 19

Senate District 19 as we know it today has been around since about 1994/1995.  Since that time it was held by Democrat Frank Madla.  Locals remember the 2006 primary when then State Rep. Carlos Uresti (D) defeated Madla for the Senate seat.  SD 19 is huge, to say the least, going from Bexar County/San Antonio to El Paso.  It's almost a mirror of Congressional District 23.  I'll let Sen. Uresti's website provide a little more info on this district:

Sen. Uresti represents Senate District 19, which covers more than 35,000 square miles and contains all or part of 17 counties, two international ports of entry, ten state parks, 51 school districts, almost 9,000 miles of highways and county roads, and more than 29,000 producing oil and gas wells. The district is larger than 11 states and 124 Nations, and contains almost 400 miles of the Texas-Mexico border.

The best Senator this district ever had, must have been Quintus Ultimus Watson.  What a great name.  He represented SD 19 from 1907 - 1915.  SD 19 was also represented at one time by Alvin J. Wirtz (D).  For anyone who has read Robert Caro's books on Lyndon Johnson, you've definitely run across him.

2012

President

Obama - 54.6%; 116,477
Romney - 44.1%; 94,159

U.S. Senate

Sadler - 52.5%; 109,461
Cruz -44.4%; 92,556

Which state fits here?  Hint: go west...literally

It's the Land of Enchantment: New Mexico.  New Mexico has been known to be a battleground and so has this district.  Technically Wendy Davis represents a Republican district, so SD 19 has the distinction of being the most marginal Democratic seat in the State Senate.  Obama carried New Mexico by 10.15% and carried this district by 10.5%.  Sadler won here by 8.1%.

Update: $30 Minimum Wage Increase

A couple of days ago, it was mentioned that the ACTU (Australian Council of Trade Unions) wanted a $30 minimum wage increase.

A response has come from the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry:

Australia's lowest paid wage earners would receive an extra $5.80 a week under a proposal from employer group the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. 

In its reply to the ACTU's pitch for a $30 increase to the minimum wage, the ACCI says many small businesses would suffer if the ACTU's claim was approved by the Fair Work Commission. 

Unlike in the United States, a government agency, not the Legislative or Executive Branch, sets the minimum wage.  No doubt though, if we tried to set up a agency in this country to regulate the minimum wage, it would get caught up in the political parlor games.

What's interesting is not that the unions are probably not going to get the $30 increase they want.  It's that they are going to get an increase.  Thanks to the Chamber of Commerce lobbyists, a proposal to raise the minimum wage never gets anywhere in this country.  But I forgot, we're the greatest country on Earth.

Senate District 18

Back when this district was first established, it was in Bexar County and held by Jose Antonio Navarro.  Nowadays this district is more southeast, comprised of a number of counties in between Houston and San Antonio.  Think Victoria County and it's surrounding counties.  For most of the 80s, this seat was held by Democrat John Sharp until he was elected Railroad Commissioner.  After Sharp came Democrat Ken Armbrister who kept the seat until his retirement in 2006.  Republican State Rep. Glenn Hegar then won the already Republican seat.  This was one of those areas of state the voted Republican up and down the ballot, but if an incumbent Democrat was conservative enough (i.e., Armbrister), they might keep him around for a good while.

2012

President

Romney - 67.3%; 198,175
Obama - 31.5%; 92,809

U.S. Senate

Cruz - 66%; 191,068
Sadler - 31.8%; 91,964

We've seen this state twice already.

It's Oklahoma, making its third and final appearance.  Romney won by 33.54% in Oklahoma and won by 35.8% in this district.  Cruz won here by 34.2%.

$30 Minimum Wage Increase

You read that right.  In Australia, the ACTU (Australian Council of Trade Unions) wants a $30 increase in the minimum wage.  From ABC News:

The Australian Council of Trade Unions is pushing for a $30 a week increase to the minimum wage.

The union will ask the Fair Work Commission to grant the increase to 1.5 million low paid workers.

ACTU secretary Dave Oliver says the government has created the economic conditions to make a significant increase affordable.

"We've been concerned for some time that there has been a significant gap emerging between the minimum pay and what the real average weekly earnings are," he said.

"So the claim that we're seeking today will lift the rate from $606 to $636 - but that is still less than what average wage weekly earnings are for the rest of society."

Of course with any talk of a minimum wage increase comes the usual talking points from big business...wait for it:

But Innes Willox from the Australian Industry Group says the wage increase would destroy jobs.

Employers are expected to back a smaller wage rise.

"We all have sympathy for low paid workers, let's make that very clear, but wage increases have to be affordable and workable for the broader economy as well, and they need to be wage increases that allow jobs to be created not jobs to be destroyed," Mr Willox said.

"Unfortunately this claim falls into the latter category.

"It would make it very difficult, nigh on impossible for some employers, particularly those in small businesses or in regional areas to afford to keep staff or engage new staff."

At a Senate Committee hearing recently, there was push back just to raise the minimum wage in the U.S. to $10.10.  And we're the greatest country on Earth?

Useless Senate Trivia

This is the current state composition of the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging.  From the Committee's website:

While special committees have no legislative authority, they can study issues, conduct oversight of programs, and investigate reports of fraud and waste.

Throughout its existence, the Special Committee on Aging has served as a focal point in the Senate for discussion and debate on matters relating to older Americans. Often, the Committee will submit its findings and recommendations for legislation to the Senate. In addition, the Committee publishes materials of assistance to those interested in public policies which relate to the elderly. 

The average age of all the members of the committee: 57

The oldest member: Orrin Hatch (R-UT), 79

The youngest member: Ted Cruz (R-TX), 42

Senate District 17

In 2008 this was a seat Democrats had high hopes of winning in a special election.  It was a seat that Democrats did win.  In the first round of voting the two Democrats combined for 52.2% of the vote.  Unfortunately, Republicans recruited a faux Democrat to ensure that the vote was split...and it worked.  Instead of having State Sen. Chris Bell (D), we got State Sen. Joan Huffman (R).  This seat has been in and around Galveston since its early days.  For a long time this seat was held by A.R. 'Babe' Schwartz (D).  Schwartz was one of those die-hard liberals while in the Senate.  He lost in 1980 to Republican 'Buster' Brown.  Brown held the seat til he resigned in 2002 and then Republican Kyle Janek took over.  Like his predecessor Janek resigned, in 2008, and a special election was held...and we're back to the present.

2012

President

Romney - 59.4%; 178,241
Obama - 39.2%; 117,562

U.S. Senate

Cruz - 59%; 175,206
Sadler - 38.4%; 113,903

We've seen this state before.

It's Tennessee making its second appearance.   Romney carried Tennessee by 20.4% and this district by 20.2%.  Cruz won here by 20.6%.

Senate District 16

Republican John Carona has held this seat since 1996 when he won it in a special election.  From 1996 - 2003 he represented primarily Dallas County along with a small portion of Rockwall County.  After the 2003 redistricting, his district became wholly within Dallas County.








2012

President

Romney - 57%; 159,759
Obama - 41.6%; 116,603

U.S. Senate

Cruz - 56.1%; 154,612
Sadler - 41.1%; 113,239

The state that best matches this district hits close to home.

It's Texas.  Romney carried Texas by 15.4% and won SD 16 by 15.78%.  Cruz won here by 15%.  In terms of Republican-majority Senate Districts, this was the 2nd closest district.  SD 10, won by Wendy Davis, was the closest Republican-majority district followed by SD 16.

When it comes to putting the state senate in play, this is a seat Democrats should consistently target.  Is it a tough district, yes.  Under these lines McCain won here 55% to Obama's 43.9%.  In SD 10, McCain won 52.1% to Obama's 47.1%.  In 2012, no statewide Democrat cracked 42%.  Percentage-wise the best statewide Democrat in 2012 was Michele Petty who lost 53.72% - 41.9%.  Let's face it though, if Democrats want to take back the Legislature and crack the Republican stranglehold on statewide offices, Democrats are going to have to win in tough districts like this.

Having said that, what are some reasons to challenge Carona?

1) It's in Dallas County.  Taking advantage of the changing demographics here, Democrats seem to have consolidated their 2006 wins with 4 straight sweeps.  How good have they've gotten?  In 2010, they defeated the incumbent Democratic County Judge in a primary and still managed to elect a Democrat to County Judge.  Did I mention that was 2010?  It's never easy to hold an open seat, but for Democrats to do it in 2010, is pretty good.

2) It's the next logical step for Democrats.  You've got the countywide vote pretty secure.  Now you need to go after elections that aren't countywide, but are confined to districts.  State Rep. Linda Harper Brown (R) continues to be a perennial target (and rightfully so), as well as a number of state rep districts, but what a coup it would be to defeat Carona.

3) You have a plethora of potential candidates.  Republicans defeated 4 Democratic state reps in Dallas, but gave Dallas Democrats some possible candidates for the state senate.  Depending on where they live you have: Kirk England, Carol Kent, Robert Miklos, Allen Vaught.  Right off the back, I'd go with Vaught.  Wounded vet who served in Iraq, then the State House, and who is now with Baron & Budd.  He brings experience, and could probably raise the money necessary for this race.

Senate District 15

Some seats are boring others are really boring.  Senate District 15 falls into the "really boring" category.  I say "really boring," only because since 1982 it's had one Senator: Democrat John Whitmire.  Serving that long gets you at least one perk...you get to be known as "Dean of the Texas Senate."







2012

President

Obama - 58.9%; 132,125
Romney - 39.7%; 89,030

U.S. Senate

Sadler - 57.3%; 127,255
Cruz - 40%; 88,763

What state lines up with SD 15?  Hint: Joe Biden

It's Delaware, the First State.  Obama won there by 18.63% and carried SD 15 by 19.2%.  Sadler won here by 17.3%.

Election of Pope: Predictions

The papal conclave begins voting to see who will be the next Pope.  Predicting who will be the next Pope is futile, but I'll make some predictions nonetheless.

The next Pope will be: A male
# of ballots: 6 - 7
# of days for the conclave: 3, last day will be (i.e., Pope will be elected on) Thursday

As far as the name the next Pope will choose, that's anyone's guess.  Some interesting tidbits:

Of the first 4 Gospels, only Mark and John have been taken as a Pope's name.  John being the most popular at 21 Popes.  So far no Matthew or Luke.

Of the first 12 Apostles, only Peter and John have been taken as a Pope's name.  So far no Andrew, Bartholomew/Nathaniel, James, Judas, Matthew, Philip, Simon (the Zealot), Thaddaeus, or Thomas.

Of some later Apostles named in the New Testament, only Paul has been used by some Popes.  No Andronicus, Apollos, Barnabas, Junia, Silas, or Timothy.

Senate District 14

It's interesting to look at the movement of Senate (as well as House) Districts.  We sometimes get into this mindset that because a district has been based in one area for numerous years, it must have always been there.  SD 14 has been based in Austin/Travis County since 1953.  Like so many districts it moved around.  It's the only Senate District to have had a Senator from Washington-on-the-Brazos.  For anyone needing a refresher, Washington-on-the-Brazos is known as the Birthplace of Texas, because Texas delegates formally declared their independence from Mexico.  There was also a senator from Truit's Store in Shelby County (The senator in question was James Truitt, so I think this might be a misspelling and should be Truitt's Store).  It's apparently not known where one Senator came from.  Sen. John Miller served in the 1st and 2nd Legislatures and came from Unknown in Colorado County.  But I digress.  In 1973 a special election was held for the seat in which a guy named Lloyd Doggett won.  He'd go on to be a State Senator, State Supreme Court Justice, and currently a Congressman.  After him came Gonzalo Barrientos who held the seat from 1985-2007.  It's current occupant is the former Mayor of Austin, Kirk Watson.

2012

President

Obama - 60.2%; 193,112
Romney - 36.1%; 116,001

U.S. Senate

Sadler - 59.4%; 187,717
Cruz - 34.7%; 109,877

This being mostly Austin (or if you're a Republican, The People's Republic Travis County), you know it's going to be Democratic.  But how Democratic?

The state this district came closest to is Massachusetts.  Obama carried Massachusetts by 23.14% and won SD 14 by 24.1%.  Sadler won here by 24.7%.