Wednesday, June 19, 2013

U.S. Attorneys General and their Law Schools

Of the 50 elected and appointed attorneys general in the U.S., 30 went to a law school in the state they currently represent, while 20 went to law school elsewhere.

Just some useless trivia. The 20 who went to law school out of state:

Attorney General State Law School Law School State
Greg Abbott Texas Vanderbilt Tennessee
Beau Biden Delaware Syracuse New York
Jack Conway Kentucky George Washington D.C.
Robert Cooper Tennessee Yale Connecticut
Catherine Cortez Masto Nevada Gonzaga Washington
Bob Ferguson Washington NYU New York
Joseph Foster New Hampshire George Washington D.C.
Doug Gansler Maryland University of Virginia Virginia
Michael Geraghty Alaska Seattle University Washington
John Hoffman New Jersey Duke North Carolina
Tom Horne Arizona Harvard Massachusetts
George Jepsen Connecticut Harvard Massachusetts
David Louie Hawaii UC Berkeley California
Thomas Miller Iowa Harvard Massachusetts
Patrick Morrisey West Virginia Rutgers New Jersey
Derek Schmidt Kansas Georgetown D.C.
Eric Schneiderman New York Harvard Massachusetts
Bill Schuette Michigan University of San Francisco California
William Sorrell Vermont Cornell New York
Luther Strange Alabama Tulane Louisiana

Saturday, June 15, 2013

State House District 146

HD 146.  This district has some things in common with our first district we looked at, HD 149.  Among other things, they're based in Houston/Harris County...and they've each only had 2 representatives.  HD 146 came into being in 1978/79.  From 1979-2007 and 2007-2011 it was held by Democrat Al Edwards.  From 2007-2009 and since 2011, the seat has been held by Democrat Borris Miles.  In 2006, Miles defeated Edwards by 409 votes in a runoff.  2 years later Edwards makes a comeback and beats Miles by 5,136 votes.  Another 2 years go by and Miles beats Edwards again...this time by only 8 votes.  Fast forward another 2 years, and this time Miles beats back a challenge from Edwards by 1,179 votes.  That's 4 elections in a row these 2 have faced off against each other...2006, 2008, 2010, & 2012.  Anyone care to take bets on 2014?

2012

President

Obama - 78.8%; 39,909
Romney - 20.1%; 10,153

U.S. Senate

Sadler - 77.2%; 38,544
Cruz - 20.6%; 10,295

We've  been here before.


Making a second appearance, it's Hawaii.  Obama carried the Aloha State by 42.71%.  He won this district by 58.7%.  Sadler carried this district by 56.6%.  That 58% might seem like a stretch, but it's closer to Hawaii than Obama's best state*, D.C.

Miles is African-American and the district has a large African-American population.  So then it should come as no surprise that this was one of Obama's 10 best House Districts.  #6 to be exact.

Friday, June 7, 2013

State House District 104

HD 104 has been around since 1893.  It's currently based in Dallas County and is represented by Democrat Roberto Alonzo...for the 2nd time.  Alonzo was elected to this district in 1992.  In 1996 he was defeated for re-election by fellow Democrat Domingo Garcia in a runoff.  Garcia won by 291 votes.  Fast forward to 2002 and Alonzo beats Garcia by 41 votes.  Garcia recently lost a congressional bid to State Rep. Marc Veasey (D).




2012

President

Obama - 72.7%; 21,287
Romney - 26.3%; 7,718

U.S. Senate

Sadler - 68.1%; 19,597
Cruz - 29.2%; 8,411


Last time we had Hawaii Five-0.  With our first Hawaii district, we have another TV show that took place in Hawaii...Magnum P.I.

The state this district best matched at the presidential level was Hawaii.  FYI, 21 of the Democrats' 54 state house seats best match Hawaii.  Put another way, 39% of the Democratic caucus come from districts as safely Democratic as Hawaii.  Obama won Hawaii by 42.71% and carried this district by 46.4%.  Sadler won here by 38.9%.

Monday, June 3, 2013

The Overlooked 3rd Branch

With all of Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R-IA) recent bloviating about the D.C. Circuit Court, it's enough to bring crocodile tears to your eyes.

Chuck is vewy, vewy upset that Obama might tip the D.C. Court into a more liberal-leaning court and now wants to shrink the court by eliminating the 3 vacancies.  Grassley was just fine with the court as is until this year.  What changed?  The retirement of Republican appointed judges. 

Until February of this year, the court had a Republican majority since 1986* (except for a brief period in 2002 when it was tied 4-4-4).  The last time it had 4 Democratic appointees was 2005.  1985/86 was the last time Democratic appointees were a majority of the court.  In 1985, Johnson appointee Edward Tamm died and Reagan appointed his replacement changing the court from 7 Ds - 4 Rs to 6-5-1.  Reagan filled a vacancy in 1986 and created a tie at 6-6.  Then Kennedy appointee James Wright took senior status in 1986 and created another vacancy.  Reagan filled the vacancy that year and Republicans got a majority.

The court expanded to 11 seats in 1979, 12 seats in 1984, and then back to to 11 seats in 2008.

Below is a chart of the D.C. Circuit Court and it's composition.  Democratic appointees in blue, Republicans in red, and vacancies in green.


Bottom line, Grassley is upset because Obama has a chance to take the court in a more leftward direction.

Friday, May 31, 2013

State House District 149

We've seen what states the State Senate matched with at the presidential level.  Now we move on to the State House and its 150 districts.  These districts have been selected at random.  The main reason being, it might get too depressing going in order since the first 21 districts are all represented by Republicans.  This way we get a variety.

This is one of those districts that reminds us that nothing is forever.  HD 149 has only been around since 1982/83 (elected in '82, sworn in '83).  We might think the Texas Legislature was always made up of 150, but it wasn't.  Texas may have been big geographically, but not population-wise.  The first Legislature had 65 House members, according to the Legislative Reference Library.

This district is so young that it's only had 2 representatives.  Democrats probably remember its first occupant, Republican Talmadge Heflin, not for his service necessarily, but likely for the recount fight he waged after he lost.  Who wouldn't be bitter?  Heflin had just been made Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee only to lose by a handful of votes.  Even powerful people get caught napping.  You only pull 55% in a re-election bid and then are shocked you lose the next year?

The man who beat Heflin in 2004 was Democrat Hubert Vo, the current occupant of HD 149.  Vo took advantage of the growing minority population in HD 149 and used it to unseat Heflin.

2012

President

Obama - 57.1%; 24,839
Romney - 41.8%; 18,183

U.S. Senate

Sadler - 55.3%; 23,527
Cruz - 42.5%; 18,087

So goes this state, so goes the nation.


This district best matched Maine in 2012.  Obama won Maine by 15.29% and carried this district by 15.3%.  Sadler won this district by 12.8%.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

The United States of Texas

We previously looked at all 31 State Senate districts to see which state they best matched at the presidential level.  If we took the State Senate results and put them into a national map, here's what the result from 2012 looked like:

5 Senate districts matched Utah, so there are 5 Utahs, etc.  A lot of red.  If Democrats want to change the landscape both statewide and in the State Senate, they need to find more Georgias, i.e., purple states that are willing to split their tickets.

This brings up another issue.  In order to find more Georgias, you probably need to unpack some Democrats from safe Democratic districts.  The problem with that is most of those Democratic districts are VRA protected districts so you run into the problem of regression.  But I digress...

Another way to look at the State Senate districts going from the most Democratic on the left to the most Republican on the right:



And here's another way.  Again most Democratic to the most Republican.  It should be noted that SD 10 voted Republican, but is blue because it is represented by a Democrat:


And if you didn't like any of those visuals, here's one more:


It should be noted that the two most Democratic districts, SD 13 & 23, are represented by African-Americans and have high African-American populations in their districts.  Looking at them through the prism of an African-American President, it looks like Democrats could move some of the Democrats out of these 2 districts into some surrounding districts and try turning some red district purple.  The question will be when Obama isn't on the ticket, will these 2 districts still perform at this level?  You also have to wonder, if these 2 African-American districts saw their vote shoot up with Obama, would a number of Hispanic Senate districts see a similar spike with a Hispanic presidential candidate?

Useless Senate Trivia 6


The composition of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee.  Purple states have 2 members on the committee.

Some notable chairmen of this committee in the past: Edmund Muskie, Fritz Hollings, & Lawton Chiles.

The committee has recently been in the spotlight after it passed a budget, with the Tea Party Republican Senators objecting to a conference committee and then being orally spanked by fellow Republican Sen. John McCain (AZ).

Monday, May 27, 2013

Perry Calls 5th Special Session on Redistricting

While it's the first Special Session of this Legislature, this is the 5th Special Session Rick Perry has called where redistricting has been on the agenda.

This will be the 10th time Perry has called a Special Session since he became governor in 2000.  10 Special Sessions and 50% involve redistricting.  3 in 2003, 1 in 2011, and 1 in 2013.

While Perry set the record for the longest-serving Texas Governor, he still hasn't beaten the record number of Special Sessions called by 1 Governor.  That honor goes to Republican Bill Clements.  During his 2 terms in office Clements called 11 Specials.  6 of those were for 1 Legislature, the 71st.

Funny enough, the man Perry eclipsed as longest-serving Texas Governor, Allan Shivers, only called 2 Specials during his tenure.

In case you're wondering, the Top 10 most Specials called by Texas Governors:

1. Bill Clements (R): 11
2. Rick Perry (R): 10
3. Price Daniel (D): 8
4. William Hobby (D): 6
    Dan Moody (D): 6
    Preston Smith (D): 6
7. Thomas Campbell (D): 5
    Pat Neff (D): 5
    Ma Ferguson (D): 5
    James Allred (D): 5
    Mark White (D): 5

All the money we've spent on redistricting from Special Sessions to lawyers' fees.  In addition to the wasted time and energy, you would think more people would demand their elected officials institute some sort of independent redistricting commission and save us all a lot of time and money.

Best & Worst Legislators

The Texas Tribune is letting people vote on who they think were the 10 Best and Worst Legislators.  This is the part where if you're a State Rep. or State Sen. you email your supporters and tell them to go vote for you.

My picks for the Tribune list (in alpha order)...

Best

Rep. Lon Burnam (D)
State Sen. John Carona (R)
Rep. Sarah Davis (R)
State Sen. Wendy Davis (D)
Rep. Charlie Geren (R)
Rep. Jose Menendez (D)
Rep. Elliott Naishtat (D)
Rep. Joe Straus (R)
Rep. Sylvester Turner (D)
State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte (D)

Worst

State Sen. Donna Campbell (R)
Rep. Harold Dutton (D)
Rep. Allen Fletcher (R)
State Sen. Joan Huffman (R)
State Sen. Dan Patrick (R)
Rep. Ron Reynolds (D)
Rep. David Simpson (R)
Rep. Drew Springer (R)
Rep. Jonathan Stickland (R)
Rep. Scott Turner (R)

Friday, May 24, 2013

State Senators Who Ran Ahead and Behind Their Presidential Ticket

Since 2011 was a redistricting year, that meant all the State Senators were up in 2012.  This also means we get to see which State Senators ran ahead and behind the presidential ticket (Democrats who ran ahead/behind Obama and Republicans who ran ahead/behind Romney).

Of the 31 Senators, 23 ran ahead of their respective presidential candidate and 8 ran behind.

The honor of running farthest ahead goes to Republican John Carona who surpassed Romney by 21,987 votes.  The Senator who ran ahead by the smallest margin was Republican Dan Patrick, who beat Romney by just 143 votes.

For everyone in between:

John Carona (R): +21,987
Kirk Watson (D): +19,415
Wendy Davis (D): +14,396
Leticia Van de Putte (D): +13,803
Judith Zaffirini (D): +13,776
Troy Fraser (R): +13,721
Glenn Hegar (R): +13,052
Eddie Lucio, Jr. (D): +11,225
Bob Deuell (R): +11,076
Kel Seliger (R): +10,056
Joan Huffman (R): +7,188
Jane Nelson (R): +6,655
Carlos Uresti (D): +5,718
Juan Hinojosa (D): +5,000
John Whitmire (D): +3,668
Rodney Ellis (D): +3,462
Mario Gallegos* (D): +3,440
Brian Birdwell (R): +1,593
Brian Nichols (R): +1,414
Charles Schwertner (R): +1,169
Robert Duncan (R): +612
Jose Rodriguez (R): +595
Dan Patrick (R): +143

*Mario Gallegos was deceased but still on the ballot.
Those Senators in italics had no major party opposition.

Senators who ran behind:

Kevin Eltife (R): -10,086
Ken Paxton (R): -8,515
Kelly Hancock (R): -6,211
Craig Estes (R): -5,600
Larry Taylor (R): -2,995
Royce West (D): -2,696
Donna Campbell (R): -1,623
Tommy Williams (R): -26

Of the 5 Senators who were running for the first time in 2012, 4 ran behind their presidential ticket (Paxton, Hancock, Taylor, & Campbell) and 1 ran ahead (Schwertner).

Of course even Senior Senators don't necessarily run very far ahead of their ticket.  The 10 most Senior Senators are:

Whitmire
Zaffirini
Ellis
Lucio
Nelson
West
Carona
Duncan
Fraser
Van de Putte

Of those 10 only Zaffirini, Lucio, Carona, Fraser, & Van de Putte were in the top 10 for running ahead.  And of those 10, West ran behind.  Just out of the top 10 in Seniority at #11 is Craig Estes, who also ran behind.

Other notes...

Of the top 10, 5 were Democrats and 5 were Republicans.

All 3 incumbent Democratic women State Senators were in the top 5.

Kudos to Wendy Davis.  Represents a Romney district, had a Republican opponent, and finished at #3 for running ahead.

Kevin Eltife seems to stick out like a sore thumb.  He's been a Senator since 2004, but comes in dead last and lags by a margin of over 10,000 votes.