The United States of Texas

We previously looked at all 31 State Senate districts to see which state they best matched at the presidential level.  If we took the State Senate results and put them into a national map, here's what the result from 2012 looked like:

5 Senate districts matched Utah, so there are 5 Utahs, etc.  A lot of red.  If Democrats want to change the landscape both statewide and in the State Senate, they need to find more Georgias, i.e., purple states that are willing to split their tickets.

This brings up another issue.  In order to find more Georgias, you probably need to unpack some Democrats from safe Democratic districts.  The problem with that is most of those Democratic districts are VRA protected districts so you run into the problem of regression.  But I digress...

Another way to look at the State Senate districts going from the most Democratic on the left to the most Republican on the right:

And here's another way.  Again most Democratic to the most Republican.  It should be noted that SD 10 voted Republican, but is blue because it is represented by a Democrat:

And if you didn't like any of those visuals, here's one more:

It should be noted that the two most Democratic districts, SD 13 & 23, are represented by African-Americans and have high African-American populations in their districts.  Looking at them through the prism of an African-American President, it looks like Democrats could move some of the Democrats out of these 2 districts into some surrounding districts and try turning some red district purple.  The question will be when Obama isn't on the ticket, will these 2 districts still perform at this level?  You also have to wonder, if these 2 African-American districts saw their vote shoot up with Obama, would a number of Hispanic Senate districts see a similar spike with a Hispanic presidential candidate?

State Senators Who Ran Ahead and Behind Their Presidential Ticket

Since 2011 was a redistricting year, that meant all the State Senators were up in 2012.  This also means we get to see which State Senators ran ahead and behind the presidential ticket (Democrats who ran ahead/behind Obama and Republicans who ran ahead/behind Romney).

Of the 31 Senators, 23 ran ahead of their respective presidential candidate and 8 ran behind.

The honor of running farthest ahead goes to Republican John Carona who surpassed Romney by 21,987 votes.  The Senator who ran ahead by the smallest margin was Republican Dan Patrick, who beat Romney by just 143 votes.

For everyone in between:

John Carona (R): +21,987
Kirk Watson (D): +19,415
Wendy Davis (D): +14,396
Leticia Van de Putte (D): +13,803
Judith Zaffirini (D): +13,776
Troy Fraser (R): +13,721
Glenn Hegar (R): +13,052
Eddie Lucio, Jr. (D): +11,225
Bob Deuell (R): +11,076
Kel Seliger (R): +10,056
Joan Huffman (R): +7,188
Jane Nelson (R): +6,655
Carlos Uresti (D): +5,718
Juan Hinojosa (D): +5,000
John Whitmire (D): +3,668
Rodney Ellis (D): +3,462
Mario Gallegos* (D): +3,440
Brian Birdwell (R): +1,593
Brian Nichols (R): +1,414
Charles Schwertner (R): +1,169
Robert Duncan (R): +612
Jose Rodriguez (R): +595
Dan Patrick (R): +143

*Mario Gallegos was deceased but still on the ballot.
Those Senators in italics had no major party opposition.

Senators who ran behind:

Kevin Eltife (R): -10,086
Ken Paxton (R): -8,515
Kelly Hancock (R): -6,211
Craig Estes (R): -5,600
Larry Taylor (R): -2,995
Royce West (D): -2,696
Donna Campbell (R): -1,623
Tommy Williams (R): -26

Of the 5 Senators who were running for the first time in 2012, 4 ran behind their presidential ticket (Paxton, Hancock, Taylor, & Campbell) and 1 ran ahead (Schwertner).

Of course even Senior Senators don't necessarily run very far ahead of their ticket.  The 10 most Senior Senators are:

Whitmire
Zaffirini
Ellis
Lucio
Nelson
West
Carona
Duncan
Fraser
Van de Putte

Of those 10 only Zaffirini, Lucio, Carona, Fraser, & Van de Putte were in the top 10 for running ahead.  And of those 10, West ran behind.  Just out of the top 10 in Seniority at #11 is Craig Estes, who also ran behind.

Other notes...

Of the top 10, 5 were Democrats and 5 were Republicans.

All 3 incumbent Democratic women State Senators were in the top 5.

Kudos to Wendy Davis.  Represents a Romney district, had a Republican opponent, and finished at #3 for running ahead.

Kevin Eltife seems to stick out like a sore thumb.  He's been a Senator since 2004, but comes in dead last and lags by a margin of over 10,000 votes.