Texas Senate 2017

We already have 2 Senators who will not be returning for the 85th Legislative Session: Kevin Eltife & Troy Fraser.

Who knows, we may end up seeing a few more retirements.  Either by a Senator's own choosing, or by the voters choosing.

One of the factors when it comes to retirements is age. Of the 14 Senators still running for re-election in 2016, 7 are over the age of 60.

69 - Judith Zaffirini (D), Eddie Lucio (D), Juan Hinojosa (D)
67 - Jose Rodriguez (D)
64 - Sylvia Garcia (D)
63 - Jane Nelson (R)
61 - Rodney Ellis (D)
55 - Larry Taylor (R)
53 - Brian Birdwell (R), Charles Perry (R)
51 - Carlos Uresti (D)
50 - Lois Kolkhorst (R)
46 - Jose Menendez (D)
44 - Brandon Creighton (R)

Another factor to consider is Seniority.  Even though Democrats haven't been in the majority for a long time, Democratic Senators have stuck around for a while. You have to wonder though, with Lite Gov. Dan Patrick trying to relegate Democrats to an afterthought, how much longer some Democrats will want to stick around.  In any case, in terms of Seniority this is how it breaks down (Senators up for re-election in 2016 colored):

1. John Whitmire (D)
2. Judith Zaffirini (D)
3. Rodney Ellis (D)
4. Eddie Lucio (D)
5. Jane Nelson (R)
6. Royce West (D)
7. Troy Fraser (R)
8. Craig Estes (R)
9. Juan Hinojosa (D)
10. Kevin Eltife (R)
11. Kel Seliger (R)
12. Carlos Uresti (D)
13. Robert Nichols (R)
14. Kirk Watson (D)
15. Joan Huffman (R)
16. Brian Birdwell (R)
17. Jose Rodriguez (D)
18. Donna Campbell (R)
19. Kelly Hancock (R)
20. Larry Taylor (R)
21. Charles Schwertner (R)
22. Sylvia Garcia (D)
23. Brandon Creighton (R)
24. Charles Perry (R)
25. Lois Kolkhorst (R)
26. Don Huffines (R)
27. Van Taylor (R)
28. Bob Hall (R)
29. Paul Bettencourt (R)
30. Konni Burton (R)
31. Jose Menendez (D)

Who'll be the next Senator to pull the rip cord? It's anyone's guess.

Texas State Senate: Higher Education Committee

The map above shows the districts of the Senators who are on the Senate Higher Education Committee.  The dark red is the district of the Committee Chair.  The lighter reds and blues are the districts of the committee members.

Out of curiosity, which higher ed institutions did the committee members graduate from?

Chair, Kel Seliger - Dartmouth College
Vice Chair, Royce West - UT-Arlington, University of Houston
Paul Bettencourt - Texas A&M
Konni Burton - UNT
Charles Perry - Texas Tech
Leticia Van de Putte - UT-Austin
Kirk Watson - Baylor

Updated: Dallas Cowboys Politics

Updated:  Another season under a Republican Governor and the Cowboys missed going to the Super Bowl.

Maybe the Texas Democratic Party can target a new type of voter in future elections: Dallas Cowboys fans.
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First, a word analogy:

Dallas Cowboys is to Super Bowl as _____________ are to Texas.

A) Democrats
B) Republicans
C) Independents

2015 TX Legislature: Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst

With the removal of the 2/3rds rule in the Texas Senate, I think this legislative session can easily be summed up as this: Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst.

Updated: Minority Governors by Time in Office

Update: With the 2014 elections, came a new addition to the list: David Ige of Hawaii.  The elections also saw Deval Patrick finish out his term.
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We've previously looked (and will continue to look) at women governors and their time in office.  What about minority governors?  There have been only 22 minority governors.  First let's take a look by days in office.  Those in bold are currently serving.

Governor	State	Time in Office
George Ariyoshi	Hawaii	4384 Days
Miguel Antonio Otero	New Mexico	3114 Days
Deval Patrick	Massachusetts	2927 Days
Bill Richardson	New Mexico	2923 Days
Ben Cayetano	Hawaii	2923 Days
John Waihee	Hawaii	2923 Days
Gary Locke	Washington	2920 Days
Bobby Jindal	Louisiana	2566 Days
John Sununu	New Hampshire	2191 Days
Susana Martinez	New Mexico	1483 Days
Brian Sandoval	Nevada	1481 Days
Nikki Haley	South Carolina	1472 Days
Bob Martinez	Florida	1464 Days
Douglas Wilder	Virginia	1463 Days
Toney Anaya	New Mexico	1462 Days
Jerry Apodaca	New Mexico	1462 Days
David Paterson	New York	1020 Days
Raul Castro	Arizona	1019 Days
Octaviano Ambrisio Larrazolo	New Mexico	732 Days
Romualdo Pacheco	California	286 Days
David Ige	Hawaii	53 Days
Ezequiel Cabeza de Baca	New Mexico	49 Days
P.B.S. Pinchback	Louisiana	36 Days

Looking at just how many days someone served doesn't tell the whole story.  As noted with our women governors, Ruth Ann Minner may have been the longest serving woman governor, but how does serving as governor of Delaware compare with serving as governor of Michigan or Texas?

Another way we can look at this list is by their population when they took office multiplied by their days in office through today.  Those in bold are currently serving.

Governor	State	Total Governing Pop.	Time in Office
David Paterson	New York	19,596,684,720	1020 Days
Deval Patrick	Massachusetts	18,825,173,193	2927 Days
Bob Martinez	Florida	17,564,022,312	1464 Days
Gary Locke	Washington	16,570,261,240	2920 Days
Bobby Jindal	Louisiana	11,318,102,536	2566 Days
Douglas Wilder	Virginia	9,052,104,754	1463 Days
Nikki Haley	South Carolina	6,808,565,248	1472 Days
Bill Richardson	New Mexico	5,479,496,722	2923 Days
Brian Sandoval	Nevada	4,033,239,882	1481 Days
George Ariyoshi	Hawaii	3,805,215,552	4384 Days
Ben Cayetano	Hawaii	3,741,167,728	2923 Days
John Waihee	Hawaii	3,074,300,326	2923 Days
Susana Martinez	New Mexico	3,053,762,457	1483 Days
Raul Castro	Arizona	2,328,259,093	1019 Days
John Sununu	New Hampshire	2,099,271,594	2191 Days
Toney Anaya	New Mexico	2,038,555,782	1462 Days
Jerry Apodaca	New Mexico	1,695,838,128	1462 Days
Miguel Antonio Otero	New Mexico	608,195,340	3114 Days
Octaviano Ambrisio Larrazolo	New Mexico	264,984,000	732 Days
Romualdo Pacheco	California	160,230,642	286 Days
David Ige	Hawaii	75,236,733	53 Days
P.B.S. Pinchback	Louisiana	26,168,940	36 Days
Ezequiel Cabeza de Baca	New Mexico	17,689,000	49 Days

One thing that probably stands out are 2 states. Hawaii and New Mexico dominate this list.  Of the 23 minority governors, 11 come from those 2 states. 7 from New Mexico and 4 from Hawaii.

The jokes write themselves

I can't help but think the jokes write themselves when the Austin American-Statesman has this headline: Gov. Rick Perry weighs in on brain science, UT brains.

Updated: Races to Watch in Bexar County

Now that Democrats have had a chance to recover from our massive hangovers..

1) Straight Ticket Voting.  Democrats lost this vote, but the margin was a lot smaller than 2010.
2) Gov. and Lt. Gov.  Leticia carried her home of Bexar County and was only 1 of 2 statewide Democratic candidates to carry Bexar County.
3) County Judge. Nelson Wolff easily (by 2014 standards) prevailed.
4) State Rep. 117 & U.S. Rep 23.  Until we see the precinct level results we won't know for sure, but I'm willing to bet that those precincts outside 1604 were not in favor of Cortez or Gallego. Kudos to Gallego for keeping the margin so close when compared to the 2010 result in CD 23.
5) District Attorney.  Nico carrying the day wasn't a good omen for other Democrats.  If anything it shows that 1) money does make a difference in elections and 2) people were probably tired of Susan Reed.
6) County Commissioner Pct 4. Calvert won by about the same margin as Adkisson did in 2010 and Democrats retain a 4-1 advantage on Commissioners Court.
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When the results start to come in, there will be several races we'll be keeping our eye on.

In no particular order they are:

1) Straight Ticket Voting
     Why: In 2010, Democrats lost the straight ticket voting by about 12,000 votes.  Democrats won straight ticket voting in 2012, 2008, 2006, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1996. 2004 was the other recent year where Democrats lost straight ticket voting.  Even in a national bad year like 2002, Democrats still did well locally.

2) Gov. and Lt. Gov
     Why: Bill White carried Bexar County in 2010 even as every other countywide Democrat with a Republican opponent lost.  If both Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte are winning Bexar County that seems to bode well for Democratic efforts to turn out voters.

3) County Judge
     Why: Nelson Wolff winning shows that there are Democrats with enough crossover appeal to avoid a national bad tide which should bode well for any Democrats who ran strong campaigns locally.

4) State Rep. 117 & U.S. Rep. 23
     Why: In 2010, the vote outside Loop 1604 turned against Democrats.  Both State Rep. 117 and U.S. Rep 23 have a lot of crossover in terms of precincts that run outside Loop 1604.  If I had to define a boundary, I'd say watch the vote north of Highway 90, outside Loop 1604, and west of IH-10.

5) District Attorney
     Why: Bottom line, if Nico is winning the D.A.'s race, there's a very good chance that Democrats are carrying the night in Bexar County.  This also holds true for Chief Justice of the 4th Court of Appeals; if Irene Rios is winning this race in Bexar County, it's a good night for Democrats locally.

6) County Commissioner Precinct 4
     Why: If Tommy Calvert holds this open seat for Democrats, it hopefully comes because of a good turnout among African-Americans on the eastside.  A good turnout of African-Americans is good for Democrats in general.

Update: Blood in the Water? Queen of Hearts D.A. is Upset

Update: According to a press release from the LaHood campaign, the ads that Reed tried to get yanked are now back on the air.

Word is that our own local Queen of Hearts, aka D.A. Susan Reed, is apoplectic that attorney Thomas J. Henry's donations to Democratic D.A. candidate Nico LaHood is up from nearly $700,000 to $1.2 million.

If anyone saw the the debate between LaHood and Her Majesty that was moderated by Rick Casey, one can't help but feel she was one step away from screaming, "Off With His Head!"

Now Reed has issued a royal proclamation that has resulted in a LaHood ad being pulled.

Henry pumping over a million dollars into the race. Reed getting an ad pulled. I think someone smells blood in the water.

For all of Reed's bellowing, one has to wonder: If someone or some thing, like a business, offered to pump a million dollars into the D.A.'s race on Reed's behalf, would she say no?  What donation is too large?  What if a donor gave her $50,000 each month for a year?  Would that $600,000 be acceptable because it wasn't all at one time?

What the Hell? Day 3 of Early Voting

I think it's safe to say the early vote numbers are just a little whacky this year.

With the data (in-person and mail) from 2 full days of voting, Bexar County turnout is up.  It's that in-person voting that is just confounding. Think about this:

1. Overall statewide turnout so far is up from 2010 (4.07% versus 3.79%; 365,347 versus 315,917)
2. In-person voting is down from 2010 (114,323 versus 121,395)
3. Mail ballots are up by a large amount from 2010 (137,402 versus 76,752)

Anyways...

For day 3 of in-person voting in Bexar, the Top 10 voting early voting sites in Bexar continue to be the usual suspects.

1. Brookhollow Library: 900
2. Cody Library: 623
3. Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 605
4. Great Northwest Library: 582
5. Semmes Library: 575
6. Wonderland of the Americas: 572
7. Shavano Park City Hall: 563
8. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 561
9. Maury Maverick Library: 546
10. Lion's Field: 533

One site has surpassed the 2,000 mark, and will undoubtedly pass the 3,000 voter mark tomorrow:
Brookhollow Library: 2,749

17 sites have now surpassed 1,000 voters (in order of largest # of voters: Wonderland of the Americas, Semmes Library, Great Northwest Library, Maury Maverick Library, Parman Library @ Stone Oak, Cody Library, Lion's Field, Tobin Library @ Oakwell, Shavano Park City Hall, John Igo Library, Bexar County Justice Center, University City City Hall, McCreless Library, Encino Park Community Center, Windcrest Takas Park, Leon Valley Conference Center, and Northside Activity Center.

Checking in with our 4 higher education voting sites, another 514 votes were added today for a 3 day total of 1,423.

After Day 2 of Early Voting

As previously suggested, the proof was in the mail ballots.

While in-person voting saw a drop off from 2010, the mail ballots saw a dramatic increase.  Think about these numbers...

For the top 15 counties:
2010 mail ballots after Day 1 of early voting: 61,104
2014 mail ballots after Day 1 of early voting: 127,035

Harris 2010: 24,273
Harris 2014: 41,520

Dallas 2010: 11,464
Dallas 2014: 16, 180

Tarrant 2010: 549
Tarrant 2014: 15,925

Bexar 2010: 4,899
Bexar 2014: 12,942

The unknown is who is driving this mail ballot turnout.  Wendy Davis is from Fort Worth/Tarrant, but is she driving this large number?

Getting back to Bexar, we can now say that we did see an increase in turnout from 2010.  Combined in-person and mail from 2010 was 19,571.  In 2014 that number is 26,378.  

For Day 2 in Bexar County it was steady as she goes.

The Top 10 voting sites were mostly the same:

1. Brookhollow Library: 944
2. Wonderland of the Americas: 656
3. Maury Maverick: 633
4. Semmes Library: 618
5. Great Northwest Library: 512
6. Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 578
7. Cody Library: 577
    Shavano Park City Hall: 577
9. Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 569
10. Lion's Field: 554

For the 4 college sites, there was an increase: 482

In total, we now have 12 early voting sites that have passed the 1,000 voters mark:

Brookhollow Library: 1,849
Wonderland of the Americas: 1,336
Semmes Library: 1,229
Maury Maverick Library: 1,200
Great Northwest Library: 1,200
Lion's Field: 1,165
Parman Library @ Stone Oak: 1,136
Tobin Library @ Oakwell: 1,131
Cody Library: 1,097
Shavano Park City Hall: 1,085
John Igo Library: 1,050
Bexar County Justice Center: 1,011

Overall the number of in-person voters was up from yesterday: 13,899.  What'll be interesting to see is the mail ballot numbers from today.  As of right now though, in-person voting is still down from 2010.